Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 2953.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2930.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.78%, up 38.64% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On April 8, the urea commodity index was 136.28, down 0.93 points from yesterday, down 5.73% from the highest point 144.57 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 145.11% from the lowest point 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is increased, and the urea supply is sufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea is quoted at 3150 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2860 yuan / ton this weekend, down 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2900 yuan / ton this weekend, down 35 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Yangmei plain urea is quoted at 2870 yuan / ton this weekend, which is 20 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 7374.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7216.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 2.14%, up 109.16% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; Coal prices have risen slightly recently. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly. The quotation increased from 4936.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4953.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.34%, a year-on-year increase of 25.83% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 11933.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 11766.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.40%.

From the perspective of demand: strong agricultural demand and normal industrial demand. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer has entered the peak season, and dealers take goods actively. However, affected by the epidemic, urea shipment is blocked and freight rates rise sharply. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant, plate plant and melamine plant is high, and the bargain hunting is followed up appropriately. In terms of supply, the urea plant in Shanxi resumed production, the urea supply increased, and the daily output returned to more than 160000 tons. At the same time, many departments have taken measures to ensure the orderly release of agricultural materials supply and light storage sources, and the policy of ensuring supply and stable price remains unchanged. On the whole, the cost of urea is generally supported, the downstream demand increases, the supply of urea increases, and the aftermarket urea fluctuates mainly in a narrow range.

The future price of urea is bearish

In the middle and early April, the domestic urea market may fluctuate and fall slightly, dominated by consolidation. Urea analysts of business society believe that the upstream market fell slightly and the cost support is general. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer has entered the peak season. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant and plate plant is high, and the downstream demand increases. On the whole, the cost support of urea is weakened, the downstream demand is good, the urea supply is normal, and the future urea is dominated by a slight shock and decline.