1、 Price data

As of April 17, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8065.75 yuan / ton, down 2.98% from 8313.25 yuan / ton on April 11. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8000 yuan / ton.

As of April 17, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 7882.50 yuan / ton, down 2.75% from 8105.00 yuan / ton on April 11. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 7900 yuan / ton.

On April 17, the naphtha commodity index was 99.55, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.16% from the highest point of 121.64 in the cycle (2022-03-10), and up 135.68% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha continued to fall this week. At present, the demand for olefins and aromatics in naphtha terminals is weak, affected by public health events in many places in China, transportation is limited, refinery shipments are blocked, and the market wait-and-see mood is strong.

Upstream: international crude oil prices rose, and it was reported that the EU might draft a bill banning the import of Russian oil. The expectation of oil product shortage caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine surfaced again, and the oil price was strongly supported. The escalating geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine has led to the rise of oil prices. Under the background of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Russia, as the world’s second largest oil exporter, has been expected to be interrupted due to Western sanctions, and the price trend of crude oil market has risen.

The price of toluene fell by 7350 yuan on March 15 of last week, compared with 7150 yuan on March 15 of this week. Mixed xylene fell broadly this week. The price was 7420 yuan / ton on April 8 and 7130 yuan / ton on April 15, down 3.91% from last week. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene this week was temporarily stable, and the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton by the end of the weekend.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the rise of international crude oil prices supports the naphtha market. At present, the naphtha market has strong wait-and-see mood, weak terminal demand, the impact of public health events in many domestic places, limited transportation, and refineries reduce prices and ship goods. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may be dominated by consolidation.