1、 Price data

According to the data of business agency, as of April 28, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 6310.00 yuan / ton, down 1.25% from 6390.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

On April 28, the fuel oil commodity index was 127.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 2.47% from the highest point of 131.04 in the cycle (2022-03-24), and up 177.34% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of domestic fuel oil 180CST fell this month, and the high price of domestic marine oil raw materials supported the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business agency, as of April 28, the self raised low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 6300 yuan / ton of 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area were 6200 yuan / ton; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 6400 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6500 yuan / ton.

The international crude oil shock in April was mainly due to the lower than expected increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories. The market is still dominated by concerns about tight global oil supply in the future. The market is intertwined with long and short, the global economic recovery slows down, the Federal Reserve’s expectation of raising interest rates rises, and the domestic epidemic suppresses demand, and oil prices are under pressure. On the other hand, the EU is considering imposing an oil ban on Russia, tightening supply expectations, limiting the decline in oil prices, and the recent crude oil price range has fluctuated.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, which supported fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of April 27, Singapore’s fuel inventory decreased by 3.959 million barrels to a seven month low of 19.144 million barrels. As of the week of April 27, Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory increased by 268000 barrels to 13.266 million barrels, the highest since March 30. As of the week of April 27, Singapore’s medium distillate stocks fell 1.98 million barrels to a three week low of 7.043 million barrels.

3、 Future forecast

The international crude oil price fluctuates, and the cost of ship fuel market is high. At present, the ship fuel market is mainly stable temporarily. Affected by the epidemic, the transportation of ship fuel market is blocked, the market wait-and-see mood is strong, the market just needs to be dominated, and the overall transaction is light. At present, the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST is about 6200-6300 yuan / ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120cst is about 6300-6400 yuan / ton. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market may be dominated by consolidation in the near future.