According to the data monitoring of business society, the polyacrylamide commodity index on April 29 was 96.71, down 0.26 points from yesterday, down 13.27% from the highest point 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 16.67% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity price: according to the data monitoring of business agency, on April 29, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market was about 15828.57 yuan / ton, down 1.86% from the first day and up 2.56% year-on-year. The production of the enterprise is normal this month, and the market inventory is sufficient; The downstream demand is general. At the moment of strict control of public health events, the transaction is greatly affected by transportation capacity and cost. The shipment pressure of enterprises is doubled. The demand situation continues to be severe. The transaction has been affected. The overall market of polyacrylamide is stable and weak this month.

The market of raw material acrylonitrile stabilized first and then stabilized in April. On the 29th, the market reported about 11560 yuan / ton, down 2.03% from 11800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. At present, domestic acrylonitrile plants such as Haijiang and kruer in Shandong continue to shut down, and the domestic acrylonitrile industry starts around 70%. The downstream demand is weak, and the market offer is slightly lower. On the one hand, the supply side continues to be loose compared with the early stage, and the downstream demand support is slightly weaker; On the other hand, the cost is still supported. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will mainly be adjusted by shock in the later stage.

Acrylic acid, the raw material, fell first and then rose in the acrylic acid Market in April. On the 29th, the mainstream quotation in East China was about 14333.33 yuan / ton, down 5.66% from 15300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. In the first half of the month, the price of raw propylene fluctuated and rose slightly, with certain support on the cost side. Some units were overhauled, but the downstream demand was not followed up enough. End users continued to wait and see, the shipment of goods holders was not smooth, and the price of acrylic acid continued to fall. In the second half of the month, the price of raw propylene moved slightly, the impact on the cost side was limited, the unit operating rate was low, the market supply decreased, the demand side improved, the market trading atmosphere gradually improved, the market trend was mild and good, near the end of the month, the downstream goods were prepared before the festival, the supply was tight, and the acrylic acid market operated strongly. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG market first fell and then rose in April, with a V-shaped trend. It was 7374 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 7208 yuan / ton at the end of the month. However, the price at the end of the month did not return to the quotation height at the beginning of the month, with a monthly drop of 2.25%. This month, the market entered the consumption off-season from the peak season, the demand was weakened, the impact of recent public health events was superimposed, the logistics was limited, the delivery of liquid plants was poor, the inventory increased, and the liquid prices in many places in China continued to decline in the first ten days. In the middle of the year, with the gradual recovery of logistics, the shipment of liquid plants turned smooth, and after many days of price reduction sales, the inventory of liquid plants will be controllable, and the price will rise tentatively. At the same time, some liquid plants in some regions have maintenance plans, there is support on the supply side, and the domestic liquid market is rising. Near the end of the month, the stock pressure of the liquid plant is not strong, the price reduction and inventory arrangement operation is not strong, and the price continues to rise moderately due to cost support. During the May Day holiday, the logistics is limited, and the domestic liquid price is expected to be mainly adjusted.

Future forecast: affected by the strict control of public health events, the problem of blocked market delivery and transportation will continue in the short term. The cost of raw materials fell slightly, the spot inventory in the market was sufficient, and the demand and transaction slowed down. In order to promote the realization, the market supply price has been reduced. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market will remain stable in the future, supplemented by a slight weakness.