1、 Price data

As of May 29, the average ex factory price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8293.25 yuan / ton, up 0.45% from 8255.75 yuan / ton on May 23. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8200-8400 yuan / ton.

As of May 29, the average ex factory price of domestic locally refined straight run naphtha was 8165.00 yuan / ton, up 0.74% from 8105.00 yuan / ton on May 23. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight run naphtha was about 8100-8300 yuan / ton.

On May 29, the naphtha commodity index was 102.35, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.86% from the highest point 121.64 in the cycle (March 10, 2022), and up 142.31% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The local refined naphtha price was slightly lower this week, the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the terminal demand was not significantly positive, the market transaction was general, and the refinery shipment was positive.

Upstream: as the international crude oil price rises, the EU’s oil ban on sanctions against Russia has been delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remains unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. OPEC will adhere to the oil production agreement reached last year at the meeting on June 2, increasing the daily output by 432000 barrels in July, rejecting the Western call for faster production increase to reduce soaring oil prices. As the epidemic situation in Asia gradually eases, demand expectations tend to improve. However, the economic recession, the tightening of monetary policy and the spread of monkeypox virus have increased the uncertainty of oil demand prospects, which has led to pressure on oil prices to a certain extent.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business community, toluene rose broadly this week. On May 23, the price was 7810 yuan / ton, and on May 29, the price was 7910 yuan / ton, up 1.28% from last week. The price of mixed xylene rose this week. On May 23, the price was 7830 yuan / ton, and on May 29, the price was 7880 yuan / ton, up 0.64% from last week. In the PX market, the market price of paraxylene was stable this week, and the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9900 yuan / ton by the end of the weekend.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the energy analysts of business agency, the rising international crude oil price and the naphtha market cost support, but the market trading is general, and the terminal is not significantly good. The market just needs to purchase. The market is in a strong wait-and-see mood, and it is cautious to catch up. It is expected that the naphtha refining in the near future may be dominated by consolidation.