In May, the aluminum price decreased first and then increased
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According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on May 31 was 20760 yuan / ton, down 0.32% from the average market price of 20826.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (5.1), and up 10.48% from the average market price of 18790 yuan / ton in the same period last year.
Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots was 24240 yuan / ton, and the recent deviation from the peak value fell by 14.36%. Starting from the recent recovery (december13,2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 10.06% in the recent period.
Introduction to aluminum ingot fundamentals in May
1. Social inventory of aluminum ingots in May
In May, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions remained within the range of 900000-980000 tons, close to the level of the same period in 2021 and at a relatively low level in recent 6 years. As of the 30th, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions was 955000 tons. From the perspective of zoning, the shipment speed of Foshan and Wuxi has increased in the short term, the arrival volume is low, and the delivery from the warehouse has warmed up; The inventory in Gongyi area has accumulated slightly, which is mainly based on the increase of downstream consumption. The regional price has a premium compared with other regions, and the arrival volume has increased.
2. import and export data of aluminum industry chain
According to the latest data of the General Administration of customs, China’s imports of unwrought non alloy aluminum in April 2022 were 34900 tons, a month on month decrease of 4600 tons, or 11.55%; A year-on-year decrease of 120700 tons, or 77.59%. From January to April of 2022, the cumulative import of domestic primary aluminum was 131400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 357500 tons, or 73.12%.
In April, the export of primary aluminum was 32000 tons, a month on month decrease of 10200 tons, a decrease of 24.20%, a year-on-year increase of 31600 tons, mainly to the Netherlands. The total export volume was 27400 tons, accounting for 85.49% of the total export volume. The total export volume of other countries (Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam and other countries) was 4700 tons, accounting for 14.51% of the total export volume. In April, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 596700 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 36.5%
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3. policy information
In 2022, Shaanxi will further strengthen the work related to industrial energy conservation and carbon reduction in 2022, promote energy efficiency benchmarking in key industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia and calcium carbide, give play to the role of benchmarking and demonstration, promote the technological transformation of energy conservation and carbon reduction in key enterprises, and improve the benchmark level of energy efficiency and the proportion of benchmarking capacity.
Fujian Province has thoroughly implemented the implementation plan for pollution prevention and control, and implemented the national plan for improving the dual control system of energy consumption intensity and total amount. By 2025, the proportion of production capacity and data centers in key industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia and calcium carbide to reach the benchmark level of energy efficiency will exceed 30%. We will step up the elimination of backward production capacity and the elimination of excess production capacity, promote the green transformation and upgrading of traditional industries such as thermal power, steel, cement, petrochemical and chemical industry, promote the new development of the building materials industry, and guide the transformation from blast furnace converter long process steelmaking to electric furnace short process steelmaking.
Yunnan power grid issued the notice on liberalizing the power load of early limited electrolytic aluminum in Dali and Wenshan areas. The notice points out that the water supply in Yunnan Province is better than expected, and the small power generation capacity in Huangping area of Dali continues to increase. In combination with the favorable factors such as the commissioning of Wenshan 500kV Tianxing Substation Phase II on June 20, it is decided to fully release the power load of the Limited electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Dali and Wenshan areas from now until the end of the flood season on the premise that the replacement of capacity indicators is in place. It is beneficial to the production speed of Yunnan Aluminum Yixin, Yunnan Qiya, Yunnan Hongtai and other projects.
Aftermarket forecast
Domestic transportation conditions have gradually improved, market circulation has begun to return to normality, downstream consumer demand has a rising momentum, and it is expected that the price of aluminum ingots will be strong in the short term.
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