1、 Price trend
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According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the price of pure benzene rose continuously this week, with the price exceeding 10000 yuan. On June 2, the price of pure benzene was 8850-9300 yuan / ton (average price: 9167 yuan / ton). On Friday (June 10), the price of pure benzene was 9900-10050 yuan / ton (average price: 9984 yuan / ton). The average price increased by 8.91% compared with last week and 28% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
Pure benzene rose strongly this week. External factors: recent strong rise in international crude oil and strong cost support. In addition, due to the strong increase in gasoline demand in the United States, a large number of toluene and xylene are required to invest in gasoline components, the disproportionation consumption is sharply reduced, the output of by-product pure benzene is significantly reduced, and the price of pure benzene in meijinpan is rising, driving the rise of pure benzene in Asia. Positive external news gave strong support to the domestic pure benzene market. Domestic factors: due to the high external price, the import of pure benzene in East China ports decreased, and the inventory continued to drop to 48000 tons. The lack of deliverable inventory led to strong short selling sentiment, and the prices in some parts of East China continued to rise. In the early stage of the main refinery, due to production cost factors, the output of pure benzene decreased and the price remained high. With multiple positive effects, pure benzene exceeded 10000 yuan.
This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 700 yuan / ton to 10000 yuan / ton.
In terms of external trading, Asian pure benzene rose in a wide range this week. On Thursday (June 9), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was $1452 / ton, up $91 / ton year-on-year, or 6.69%; The reference import price in East China was USD 1445 / T, with a year-on-year increase of USD 95 / T or 7.04%.
In terms of crude oil, due to the arrival of the peak driving season in the United States, driving demand growth, as well as the tightening of supply expectations under the background of Western sanctions against Russia, this week’s rise was dominated. As of June 10, Brent rose $2.29 per barrel, or 1.91%; WTI rose $1.8/barrel, or 1.51%.
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Downstream: styrene: styrene rose broadly this week. The price was 10381.43 yuan / ton on June 2 and 11100 yuan / ton on June 10, up 6.92% from last week and 22.43% from the same period last year. The continuous rise of crude oil price has raised the prices of pure benzene and ethylene, resulting in the rise of styrene cost. There are many styrene enterprises in the site with equipment maintenance and supply reduction, which is conducive to the rise of styrene market. Styrene market transactions were acceptable, and spot prices continued to rise.
Aniline: boosted by the positive cost side, aniline rose continuously this week. On June 10, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12500 yuan / ton, up 5.51% over last week and 30.64% over the same period last year.
3、 Aftermarket forecast
In terms of crude oil, the short-term oil price is still running at a high point, with little change in supply and demand fundamentals. Supply tightening expectations and demand growth support oil prices. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions, etc. on crude oil prices.
Downstream: the main downstream product styrene: the international crude oil market is still at a high level, and the downstream is generally in general mood to take over the high price styrene. The cost and pressure of styrene coexist. Generally speaking, if the raw material level rises next week, the styrene market will follow suit.
The short-term crude oil and the external market are still at a high level, and under the influence of the external market high price, the East China port will continue to maintain a low inventory state. However, under the pressure of high cost, economic production reduction in the downstream and the arrival of summer maintenance season for main products will lead to negative demand for pure benzene in the future. In general, pure benzene still operates at a high level, but there is no lack of callback possibility. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market price trends, domestic logistics and transportation, and the dynamics of pure benzene and downstream devices on prices.
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