Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the copper price in August surged. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 61571.67 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the copper price rose to 63808.33 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 3.63% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.75%.

According to the current chart of the business community, in August, the spot price of copper was basically higher than the futures price. The main contract was the expected price in two months. The main basis became larger, which was bad for buying hedging.

According to the LME inventory, the LME copper inventory in August was lower than that in July, and fell to the same level in June at the end of the month.

Macroscopically, the data of industrial added value, retail sales of consumer goods and fixed asset investment above designated scale in July were all lower than expected, while the real estate data weakened again to a new low. In August, the global energy crisis became more severe, and the economic prospects of Europe were even less ideal. However, the economic data of the United States is not ideal, and the global economy is in recession.

On the supply side, global copper smelting activities decreased in July, and the global copper dispersion index dropped to 46.5 from 46.7 in the previous month. There is still some interference in the global refined copper production. On the one hand, the energy supply problem in Europe is still fermenting, and the copper smelting operation rate may be affected and reduced by the natural gas consumption reduction plan implemented by EU countries; On the other hand, although the domestic smelting and maintenance activities are marginally reduced, some copper production areas have reduced the operating rate due to power limitation, and the growth of refined copper output may continue to be lower than expected. In addition, the reduction of crude copper produced from scrap copper leads to the tight supply of domestic cold materials, which also restricts the growth of refined copper output.

Demand: the recovery of terminal demand is not obvious, and the primary processing market has recovered. On the real estate side, due to the “loan suspension” and the financing problems of private real estate enterprises, the market confidence is insufficient, the supply and demand are weak, and the front and back end data are poor. In the household appliance sector, both domestic and external demand are weak, or it is difficult to have a good performance. At present, the proportion of copper used for new energy vehicles in the automobile sector is not high, and the overall demand is limited.

From the above, in August, copper showed a weak trend of both supply and demand. Rumors of domestic storage stimulated the market, and copper prices kept a moderate rebound trend. There is great uncertainty in the future China-U.S. relations. On September 21, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. The market sentiment is conservative and the rebound is still weak. In September, the domestic traditional peak season has a certain support for the copper price, and it is expected that the copper price may continue to fluctuate strongly in general.