It can be seen from the above figure that the mainstream market price of domestic urea in this month generally fell first and then rose: the price of urea first fell from 2438.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2312.00 yuan / ton on August 10, down 5.17%, and then rose to 2400.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 3.81%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease was 2.04%.

On August 30, the urea commodity index was 111.63, which was the same as yesterday, down 26.72% from the highest point 152.33 in the cycle (May 15, 2022), and up 100.77% from the lowest point 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

In August, the urea price fluctuated and fell, with the highest drop of 1.01% in a single week. According to the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream market price of urea in China has risen and fallen this month.

Insufficient upstream support and general downstream demand

From the data of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream products of urea in this month as a whole have seen a slight drop: the price of liquefied natural gas has dropped slightly, from 6520.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 5752.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 11.78%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.67% compared with the same period of last year. The price of liquid ammonia was adjusted at a low level. The price fluctuated in a narrow range of 3780 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 1.73% over the same period of last year. In this month, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose sharply, from 7233.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8466.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 17.05%.

From the demand side, the agricultural demand is weakened and the industrial demand is insufficient. The agricultural demand in some areas has been eliminated. The operating load of compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants is low, the industrial demand is insufficient, the price of melamine rises sharply, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is enhanced. In terms of supply, some areas in the South have limited power and stopped production, and the daily output of urea has dropped to about 140000 tons.

Urea may rebound at the bottom in the future

The urea market may rebound at the bottom in the middle and early September. Although the prices of anthracite and natural gas in the upstream have dropped slightly, the cost support is insufficient. However, in September, the production of compound fertilizer manufacturers is expected to gradually increase, the industrial demand increases, and the agricultural demand follows up as needed. Urea may rebound at the bottom in the future.