The market of plasticizer rose sharply and fell sharply

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the plasticizer market will rise and fall sharply in 2022, with the highest prices of DOP and DOTP being 13400 yuan/ton and 13550 yuan/ton respectively, the lowest prices of DOP and DOTP being 8775 yuan/ton and 8975 yuan/ton respectively, and the price difference being 4625 yuan/ton and 4575 yuan/ton respectively; The corresponding maximum price of DBP is 12333.33 yuan/ton, the minimum price is 8600 yuan/ton, and the price difference is 3733.33 yuan/ton. The price difference between the highest and lowest prices of DBP is significantly lower than that of DOP and DOTP. The overall plasticizer market is choppy and the trend of DBP is relatively stable.

DBP capacity and operating rate

DBP capacity expanded to reach the peak of 1.05 million tons/year in 2015, and then the capacity contracted, and some units were in a long-term shutdown or unstable production state; By 2021, the DBP capacity will shrink to 850000 tons (including some long-term shutdown devices); In recent years, some small DBP enterprises have begun to withdraw from the market, and the capacity of DBP plants has shown signs of shrinking. However, due to the expansion of major large plants, the capacity of DBP plants is relatively stable. The overcapacity of plasticizer market will be particularly prominent in 2022, and the operating rate of DOP and DOTP enterprises will drop from about 60% in previous years to less than 50% in 2022; However, the situation of DBP overcapacity is relatively stable. The operating rate of DBP enterprises is maintained at about 30% to 40% all the year round. With its unique performance and specific downstream, the market is relatively stable for the time being. The capacity and operating rate of DBP in 2022 will not change much compared with previous years.

Future market expectation

Analysts of DBP data from Business Press believed that DBP could not completely exit the plasticizer industry in a short time. First of all, it has experienced time and quality inspection in the application of plastic processing fields such as film, leather products, wire and cable, footwear and other terminal products; Second, there is a certain gap between the application performance of some environment-friendly plasticizers and DBP in aging resistance, flexibility, etc. The decline in the proportion of DBP plasticizers will be the trend of the times, and the elimination or conversion of backward DBP production capacity will also be the mainstream of future enterprises. As the downstream demand, capacity and operating rate of DBP have been relatively stable in recent years, the future price trend of plasticizer DBP mainly depends on the price trend of raw materials phthalic anhydride and n-butanol. Recently, the prices of phthalic anhydride and n-butanol have fallen, and it is expected that the future DBP prices will fall in shock.