1、 Trend analysis

On the 1st, the nickel price rose significantly. According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the average price of nickel in the spot market was 194716.67 yuan/ton, up 4.56% from the previous trading day and 33.6% year on year; Nickel futures note rose 3.94% on the day.

Typhoon Landed Philippines Nickel Mine and Its Transportation Was Blocked

Typhoon “Nig” has landed in the Philippines and is gradually close to the coast of South China. Affected by the typhoon, the transportation of nickel ore is blocked. The price of nickel ore is still strong and the cost support is strong. In addition, with the arrival of the rainy season in the Philippines, shipments began to decrease, mine bidding prices soared, and supply side disturbances drove up mine prices.

LME may restrict the Russian nickel transaction

It is rumored that the London Metal Exchange (LME) in September issued a discussion on metal processing in Russia, which ended on October 28. Most market participants expect that the decision to restrict Russian nickel trading will be announced soon. The possibility of supply interruption of Russian Nickel as the main deliverable in LME nickel market has sharply increased the market sentiment.

The typhoon rainy season superimposed Russian nickel trade or limited rumors, and the new energy industry has a strong momentum of development. The demand for nickel for power batteries is growing, the price of battery grade nickel sulfate is rising, and the explicit inventory of pure nickel still remains destocking, leading to a sharp rise in nickel prices. However, the seasonal demand of “Gold Nine Silver Ten” faded, the demand growth slowed down, and the nickel fundamentals were weak. In addition, the factors that Russian nickel or a large number of domestic nickel and nickel beans joined the delivery in the previous period in the later period limited the space for nickel price to rise.

Downstream stainless steel price drop

In the first half of October, the price of stainless steel kept rising, which drove large steel mills to step up procurement. However, since the last ten days, the price of stainless steel has fallen back, and the recovery of terminal consumption has slowed down. The downward transmission of demand is limited. At present, the downstream are mostly wait-and-see.

According to the annual nickel price comparison chart of the business community in recent three years, the price in November is still stronger than that in October. The supply side is tight, but the demand for “Gold Nine Silver Ten” has subsided. In the case of weak supply and demand, nickel price is easily affected by macro factors, and the price fluctuates greatly. It is expected that the nickel price will continue to fluctuate in a wide range in the short term, and there is no condition for unilateral rise temporarily.