This week (11.14-18), the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 18, the decline this week was 2.37%. At present, the adipic acid market price range is 9700-9900 yuan/ton. The main reasons for the decline: the upstream raw material pure benzene continued to be weak, the supply pressure remained and the demand was sluggish.
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Industrial chain
The above figure shows that the adipic acid industry chain is weak as a whole this week, with the whole line declining. Adipic acid and the downstream declined strongly, especially the downstream PA66 dropped nearly 3% in the week.
Cost side: pure benzene continued to decline
This week, pure benzene continued its downward trend. Since the middle of October, pure benzene has been falling continuously. This week’s decline was 0.59%, slightly narrower than last week’s 2%. On the one hand, the market is still sluggish. However, the signs of stopping the decline are gradually emerging, mainly due to the decline of port inventory in East China and the strong performance of downstream styrene export. The shipment of pure benzene increased. The supply and demand fundamentals improved slightly. However, the situation of oversupply has not been reversed. Near the weekend, the price of pure benzene in East China was 6850-6950 yuan/ton.
It can be seen from the price comparison chart of pure benzene adipic acid above that the two are positively correlated and have a highly consistent trend. However, the curve opening shrinks in the near future, mainly because the decline of adipic acid is too strong, and the decline of pure benzene is restrained.
Supply side: Start up and stabilize the accumulated warehouse of the manufacturer
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In terms of market supply: in terms of devices, the overall operating rate of adipic acid was flat this week, about 60%. Previously, Xinjiang Tianli devices resumed operation and Taihua increased its load, releasing supply; However, last week, Shenma entered the maintenance period at the beginning of the month for a set of devices. This week, Haili maintained a set of devices to stabilize the supply increase. Other units have not changed much, and the supply has not changed much, but the manufacturer is still in the stage of destocking.
Demand side: weak downstream demand
The downstream performance of adipic acid is weak, the market is weak, and the early inventory is mainly digested. The downstream factories are cautious in taking the goods, and sporadic orders need to be supplemented to ensure the normal start-up demand. Take PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of the business community, PA66 rose or dropped by 2.97% this week. The downstream still resisted the high price supply, and the shipment speed slowed down. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was 24500-25000 yuan/ton.
Future outlook
The business community believes that, on the cost side, crude oil shocks and declines, pure benzene continues to be weak, and the cost side cannot benefit in the short term. There are too many maintenance devices at the supply side, and the market continues to go out of stock, so the supply pressure may be relieved in the future. The demand side is relatively weak, and the supply and demand game will continue. Considering comprehensively, adipic acid may maintain a weak adjustment pattern. In the later stage, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the manufacturer’s commencement and the upstream pure benzene price trend.
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