1、 Price trend
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According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, toluene continued its downward trend this week, with a wider decline. The price was 7230 yuan/ton on November 25 and 6640 yuan/ton on Friday (December 2), down 8.16% from last week; 10.12% higher than the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and review
Due to the weak trend of crude oil, combined with poor domestic demand for toluene, the market discussion was light, and the industry was bearish about the future market, and the price continued to decline last week.
In terms of external markets, the price of toluene in Asia fell this week. On Thursday (December 1), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was 777 US dollars/ton, down 67 US dollars/ton year on year, or 7.94%.
In terms of crude oil, concerns about the risk of global economic recession remain, and oil demand is under pressure. However, the OPEC+production reduction rumors and the news that the US crude oil inventory fell more than expected brought good news, and the oil price rebounded after falling in the week. As of December 2, Brent price this week rose by 1.94 dollars/barrel, or 2.32%, compared with last week; WTI rose by 3.7 dollars/barrel, or 4.85%.
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Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell this week. On November 25, it was 17500 yuan/ton, and on December 2, it was 17233 yuan/ton, down 1.52% from last week and up 19.88% from the same period last year.
In terms of PX, domestic PX prices fell this week. On November 25, the price was 8600 yuan/ton, and on December 2, the price was 8300 yuan/ton, down 3.49% from last week and up 23.88% from the same period last year.
In terms of gasoline, this week’s gasoline continued its downward trend. The price was 8082 yuan/ton on November 25 and 7836 yuan/ton on December 2, down 3.04% from last week and 0.64% from the same period last year.
3、 Future market forecast
In terms of crude oil, major oil producing countries decided to maintain the established production reduction target, and the oil price was somewhat suppressed. Under the background of the risk of global economic recession, energy demand is depressed; However, the supply side is still tight, and the short-term market will maintain a volatile pattern. We will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.
The market fundamentals are poor, and the short-term trend of crude oil is weak. It is expected that toluene will be dominated by weak operation. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.
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