1、 Price data

According to the data from the bulk list of business cooperatives, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners was weak and volatile this week. On December 11, the average price of Shandong market was 3459.00 yuan/ton, down 0.14% from 3464.00 yuan/ton on December 5.

On December 11, the petroleum coke commodity index was 269.03, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.17% from the highest point 408.70 (2022-05-11) in the cycle, and up 302.20% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of petroleum coke in refineries rose and fell with each other. The local refining enterprises shipped well. At present, the logistics in many places across the country has been restored, and the petroleum coke market is in sufficient supply. Downstream companies have begun to stock up on demand.

Upstream: The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the international crude oil price fell to the lowest level within the year. Because some economic data in the United States exceeded expectations, the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate increase still exists, which suppressed the benefits of OPEC+production reduction and Western sanctions against Russia. The unexpected growth of the US ISM non manufacturing index in November, released on Monday, reflects that the domestic economy is still resilient. The continued economic boom has triggered market concerns about the Federal Reserve’s transition from “dove” to “eagle”, which may disappoint the Federal Reserve’s previous desire to slow down interest rate hikes. The market provided the basis for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation and maintain the monetary tightening path, which affected the crude oil market to decline significantly. The overall global economy is weak, the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and the economic weakness depresses oil prices.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke was basically stable this week; The price of metal silicon market declines; The downstream electrolytic aluminum price fluctuated and fell. As of December 11, the price was 19270.00 yuan/ton; At present, downstream carbon enterprises are under great financial pressure, mainly purchasing on demand.

The oil coke analysts of the business agency believe that: the international crude oil has dropped sharply this week, and the cost support of oil coke is limited; At present, the logistics in many places across the country has been restored, and the downstream enterprises are highly motivated to stock up. However, the petroleum coke market is currently in sufficient supply, and the downstream has an obvious intention to depress the price. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke will be mainly adjusted in the near future.