441 # silicon price trend

As the Spring Festival approaches, the actual trading days of the metal silicon market decrease day by day, and the downstream enterprises take leave in advance, so the demand support is still insufficient. Although futures have recovered, spot prices continue to weaken. As of January 9, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the domestic market was 18780 yuan/ton, according to the monitoring of the Business Society.

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on September 9 is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Huangpu Port area is 18800-18900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 18850 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port area is 18600-18700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 18650 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming is 18400-18600 yuan/ton, with an average of 18500 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Sichuan is 18400-18600 yuan/ton, with an average of 18500 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 19300-19500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 19400 yuan/ton.

Influential factors of falling price of metal silicon

Supply:

The overall number of silicon metal furnaces this week is basically stable, with an increase of 1 compared with last week. It is understood that the total number of silicon metal furnaces is 709 at present. As of January 6, the silicon metal furnace opening rate is about 50.21%, 143 in Xinjiang, 43 in Sichuan and 59 in Yunnan. With the rise of power cost in dry season, the operating rate in Sichuan-Yunnan region continues to decline. Xinjiang’s output increased and supply was relatively loose.

Demand:

The mainstream price of polysilicon is in the range of 180-20000 yuan/ton. At present, the operating rate of enterprises’ devices remains high, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak, which causes the price of polysilicon to fall sharply. The downstream silicon wafer manufacturers are affected by the poor delivery and overstock of inventory, and the operating rate is reduced to below 80%, and the digestion of raw metal silicon inventory is slowed; The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 fell by 200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation was 18700 yuan/ton. The aluminum enterprises had holidays in succession, and the weekly operating rate of the aluminum alloy industry continued to decline; The organosilicon DMC market rose slightly, with the quotation of 16580 yuan/ton as reference. The trading atmosphere in the organosilicon DMC market was tepid, and the downstream demand was generally boosted. Some organosilicon DMC factories may still have some supply pressure, and it is expected that the operation will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range in the short term.

Aftermarket forecast

In general, the main reason for the weak decline of metal silicon is that the terminal demand is relatively weak, and under the stable supply and output in Xinjiang, the inventory pressure is large. Due to the shortage of funds at the end of the year, it is not excluded that the silicon factory will ship at a loss. It is expected that the price of metal silicon will continue to be under pressure in the short term.