Futures:
Figure 1: The trend of the main contracts of natural rubber futures since 2023
In February, rubber futures continued to fluctuate slightly, mainly in the negative direction, and the market remained around 12400-12580.
goods in stock:
Figure 2: Trend chart of natural rubber spot commodity index in recent 2 months
According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the natural rubber commodity index on February 28 was 35.64, which was the same as yesterday, down 64.36% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01) in the cycle, and up 30.65% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)
Figure 3: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market in the last three months of 2022
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Commodity market: The monitoring by the Business News Agency showed that the spot price of domestic standard rubber in the East China market of natural rubber in February 2023 was mainly fluctuating and falling: the market reported 12610 yuan/ton on the 1st and 12020 yuan/ton on the 28th, ending with a monthly drop of 4.68%. The highest price of this month was 12610 yuan/ton on February 1, and the lowest price was 11980 yuan/ton on February 13. The maximum amplitude of this month was 05%. During the annual trough of global natural rubber supply, the annual inventory of downstream product factories is mainly consumed, resulting in sparse procurement. The market transaction is not good, and the market price is mainly negative this month.
Industrial factors: At present, the global natural rubber production has been at the annual low point: in foreign production areas, the continuous rainfall in southern Thailand and most parts of Malaysia in the last two months of the year has reduced the production of new rubber, and the main production areas in Vietnam have been in the cutting period this month, and the cutting and production reduction in northeastern and southern Thailand have been stopped; Malaysia and northern Indonesia have entered a period of production reduction, and the global natural latex production has reached an annual low in March. In late February, the demand of China’s downstream latex products enterprises began to recover. First of all, the consumption of stocks prepared before the year began to dominate. The purchase of new orders was small, the market turnover was weak, and the market rebounded from the increase after the Spring Festival. It is expected that the sharp adjustment of the market will be possible when the annual supply is at the lowest level next month and the inventory of product manufacturers is exhausted.
macroscopic:
Figure 4: Trend of the mainstream international crude oil prices in the last three months of 2022
In February, the crude oil market fell first, then rose and then fell, similar to the “W” trend. Among them, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $78.87/barrel on the 1st, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $85.46/barrel; On the 27th, international crude oil futures closed lower: the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 75.68 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 82.04 dollars/barrel. The global economic recession is expected to be superimposed with high oil inventories in the United States to limit the rise of oil prices.
Industry hotspot:
1. According to the recent report of ANRPC, the global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 2.2% to 14.672 million tons in 2023; In 2023, global natural rubber consumption is expected to decrease by 0.1% to 14.738 million tons. The decline in consumption is mainly due to the uncertainty of the global economy in 2023.
2. According to Yunnan report, in order to promote the high-quality development of natural rubber industry in Yunnan Province, the Rural Work Leading Group Office of Yunnan Provincial Party Committee, the Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the Provincial Bureau of Agricultural Reclamation recently jointly issued the Three-year Action Implementation Plan for Natural Rubber Industry in Yunnan Province (2022-2024), which made it clear that by 2024, the planting area and output of natural rubber in Yunnan Province will be stabilized at 8.5 million mu and 460000 tons respectively, The output value of the whole industrial chain increased from 18 billion yuan in 2021 to 25 billion yuan.
3. According to foreign media reports, an insider said that the increase in rubber production in Bangladesh is helping local tire manufacturers reduce their dependence on imported rubber. It is reported that, according to the data of the Bangladesh Rubber Bureau and producers, 67939 tons of raw rubber were produced in 2022 due to the increase in planting area, an increase of 58% from 43000 tons in 2021.
4. According to the data, Vietnam exported 135000 tons of natural rubber and mixed rubber in January 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 30%; Exports to China totaled 107000 tons, down 23% year on year.
6. According to the latest data released by the Association of European Automobile Manufacturers (ACEA), the European passenger car market increased by 11.3% to 760041 vehicles in January 2023, opening a new year in a positive way. However, this is mainly due to the exceptionally mild comparative base in 2022, when the trading volume in January reached the lowest level since the record.
7. Foreign media reported on the 20th that an insider said that the increase in rubber production in Bangladesh was helping local tire manufacturers reduce their dependence on imported rubber. It is reported that, according to the data of the Bangladesh Rubber Bureau and producers, 67939 tons of raw rubber were produced in 2022 due to the increase in planting area, an increase of 58% from 43000 tons in 2021.
8. According to the data, the export volume of natural rubber from C รด te d’Ivoire, the largest natural rubber producer in Africa, was 134452 tons in January 2023, an increase of 14.7% over the same period last year..
9. In January 2023, the sales volume of heavy truck market in China was 45000, down 53% year on year. This single month’s sales volume is not only far lower than that of the first year of 2022, but also lower than that of 2019 before the epidemic, which is mainly affected by the high base before the epidemic and the Spring Festival holiday.
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10. The Ministry of Commerce said that it would continue to work with relevant departments to stabilize and expand auto consumption, focusing on: first, stabilize new car consumption; (ii) Support the consumption of new energy vehicles and guide all regions to further optimize the use environment of new energy vehicles in various aspects such as license plate, charging and transportation; 3 Continue to expand the circulation of second-hand cars; Fourth, smooth the renewal of automobile scrapping, revise and improve the regulations on the management of automobile scrapping, improve the recycling system of scrapped automobiles, encourage the development of automobile scrapping in places where conditions permit, and promote automobile recycling consumption.
11. According to the data, Indonesia’s total export of natural rubber and mixed rubber in 2022 was 2.059 million tons, down 12.3% year on year; Exports to China totaled 174000 tons, down 11.8% year on year.
12. According to foreign media reports on February 2, the executive director of the Indian Rubber Commission said that India announced in the federal budget that it would increase the import tax rate of rubber in line with the import tariff of natural rubber, which is expected to make the domestic rubber farmers in the country obtain higher selling prices. The same tariff will help to close the loophole of importing natural rubber disguised as composite rubber to enjoy lower tariffs.
13. On February 1, 2023, the Department of Internal Market Protection of the Eurasian Economic Commission issued Announcement No. 2023/350/AD18R2, according to the resolution of the Eurasian Economic Commission No. 14 of January 31, 2023, to make a final anti-circumvention decision on the anti-dumping case of truck tyres originating from China, and to impose an anti-dumping duty of 14.79% to 35.35% determined in the resolution 154 of November 17, 2015 on the truck tyres added with rims and exported with tyres and disc or non-disc rim components, The measures will take effect three months from the date of issuance.
14. According to the information of the Passenger Car Federation on February 7, preliminary statistics showed that from January 1 to 31, the retail sales of 1.241 million passenger cars in the passenger car market decreased by 41% year-on-year and 43% year-on-year; Domestic passenger car manufacturers wholesale 1.341 million vehicles, down 38% year-on-year and 40% year-on-year.
15. According to the Malaysian Bureau of Statistics on February 7, Malaysia’s total rubber output in 2022 was 377047 tons, down 19.7% from 469669 tons last year..
16. According to the statistics and analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the performance of China’s automobile market was flat in January, and the production and sales of automobiles showed a double-digit decline both on a month-on-month basis and on a year-on-year basis. The monthly production and sales were 1.594 million and 1.649 million respectively, down 33.1% and 35.5% month-on-month and 34.3% and 35% year-on-year.
Figure 5: Comparison of annual spot market trend of natural rubber in 2021-2023
Aftermarket forecast: At present, the global supply is at its lowest point in the recent year. The purchase demand of downstream product enterprises is gradually recovering and is in the pre-year inventory consumption stage. At present, the purchase order of Tianjiao is scarce, the market is weak, and the price of natural latex is declining. It is expected that the supply trough next month coincides with the increase of factory demand and the depletion of inventories, and the natural rubber market will usher in a big adjustment period.
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