On June 29th, the crude benzene commodity index was 85.58, a decrease of 0.84 points from yesterday, a decrease of 35.09% from the cycle’s highest point of 131.84 points (2013-01-28), and an increase of 180.22% from the lowest point of 30.54 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the crude benzene market experienced a volatile trend in June 2023, with an overall downward trend. The domestic factory price of crude benzene was at 5776.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 5465 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decrease of 5.39%.

The crude oil market price range fluctuated in June, with international crude oil futures slightly rising as of the 29th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.86 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.51 per barrel. On the one hand, from the perspective of the global economic situation, the Federal Reserve’s announcement of interest rate hikes has not yet ended and will not cut rates. Macroeconomic pressure is increasing, and the oil market is under pressure. On the other hand, OPEC+has announced two production cuts, coupled with the increase in China’s refining and processing volume, which has boosted international oil prices. The demand during the summer oil peak season has supported, and the international oil price market has been boosted. Overall, the crude oil market is still a long short game, with international oil prices maintaining fluctuations within the range.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has shown a positive trend in recent times, with a decline starting in mid April and falling for 9 consecutive weeks.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 300 yuan/ton on June 13, 2023, and is currently at 6200 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 6250 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6200 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6063 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6150 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6200 yuan/ton.

In terms of industrial chain: In May, the pure benzene market overall declined, while crude oil and styrene prices were generally weak within the month, especially the decline in styrene market, dragging down the continuous decline of the pure benzene market. On June 13th, Sinopec lowered its listing price by 300 yuan/ton and implemented a price reduction of 6200 yuan/ton, which also had a certain impact on market sentiment. As the sentiment in the pure benzene market continues to decline, the overall industry chain has a low market mentality, while downstream and traders have a strong attitude towards price pressure, resulting in a continuous negative decline in the hydrogenation benzene and pure benzene markets during the month.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After entering 23 years, the price of crude benzene has been rising for four consecutive months, and has been declining continuously in May and June. The weekly K-bar chart of crude benzene shows that the crude benzene market has been mixed in recent times.

Although crude benzene is a coal chemical commodity, its price trend closely follows the fluctuations in the pure benzene market. In June, the overall decline of the pure benzene industry chain affected crude benzene, but due to the low start of coking enterprises, the supply of crude benzene is slightly tight, and coke prices are rising, crude benzene prices still have some resistance to decline. The decline in crude benzene is slightly smaller than that of pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene. In terms of supply, the operating rate of coking enterprises in June was around 75%, and the supply of crude benzene was slightly tight. The coking enterprises have a strong mentality of supporting prices. In terms of demand, the hydrogenation benzene market has recently seen low profits and a decline in overall operating rates, maintaining a strong demand for crude benzene. Overall, the recent trend of crude oil has been volatile, and its guidance on the market is not significant. At the end of June, some new hydrogen benzene enterprises were added for maintenance, and the market expects a slight decline in demand in the future. The tight supply of crude benzene has some resilience, but there is a lack of downstream demand support, and there may be a slight downward trend. In the future, the business agency predicts that the crude benzene market will be mainly stable, moderate, and weak in the near future.