Recent price trends of urea

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market price has slightly increased this week, with urea prices rising from 2308.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2318.75 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.43%. Weekend prices fell by 19.15% year-on-year. On July 9th, the urea commodity index was 107.85, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.20% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 93.97% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Cost support is average, downstream demand is good, and urea supply is sufficient

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream prices of urea in China have fluctuated this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that there have been ups and downs in the urea upstream market this week. The price of liquefied natural gas has slightly decreased, from 4118.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3990.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.11%, and the weekend price has decreased by 31.04% year-on-year; The price of Anthracite was adjusted at a low level. This week, the price of Anthracite (washing block) in Yangquan was 920 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia has significantly increased, rising from 2716.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2900.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 6.75%, and the weekend price has decreased by 31.06% year-on-year. Upstream raw material prices fluctuate, providing general support for urea prices. This week, the downstream melamine price of urea has stabilized at a low level, with a price of 6575.00 yuan/ton.

From a demand perspective: agricultural demand has increased, while industrial demand is average. The peak season for fertilizer use in summer has begun, leading to an increase in agricultural demand. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is normal. Board and melamine enterprises generally start construction and mainly purchase on demand. From a supply perspective, the daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

The domestic urea market may fluctuate slightly in mid to late July. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has ups and downs, and the cost of urea is generally supported. The downstream agricultural peak season begins, with good agricultural demand and average industrial demand. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range.