According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of petroleum coke from local refineries increased first and then stabilized this week. On August 13th, the average market price in Shandong was 2009.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.21% compared to the price of 1946.50 yuan/ton on August 7th.

On August 13th, the petroleum coke commodity index was 156.26, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 61.77% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 points (2022-05-11), and an increase of 133.61% from the lowest point of 66.89 points on March 28th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)

This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose. Due to concerns about market supply and continued fermentation, coupled with the positive phase of the peak oil consumption season, OPEC+, an oil producing country, has continued to reduce production by an additional scale, and the decline in finished oil storage in the United States has exceeded expectations.

Supply side: Port petroleum coke storage continues to decline, refining petroleum coke storage remains low

The inventory of petroleum coke in domestic ports continues to decline. Recently, there have been fewer imported petroleum coke arriving at ports. In addition, downstream procurement is active, and import traders have a strong willingness to ship. The speed of port shipment is relatively high, and the inventory of petroleum coke in ports is still mainly destocking. This week, the shipment of refined petroleum coke was good, and the overall inventory of the refinery was low. The main focus was on executing early orders, and downstream demand was good, driving up the price of refined petroleum coke. With the high price of petroleum coke, some downstream wait-and-see sentiment has increased, with local refining petroleum coke prices mainly stabilizing.

On the demand side: terminal operating rate increases, demand increases

The price of metal silicon has increased this week. As of August 10th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 345, with an overall furnace opening rate of 48.05%, an increase of 22 units compared to the previous month. The Sichuan Universiade has ended, and some silicon factories have slowly resumed production; Stable resumption of work and production in Xinjiang region; Due to natural disasters, some smelting furnaces in the Yunnan region have been affected and have been basically restored, with little impact on supply. The operating rate of metal silicon has slightly increased, providing slight support for the procurement of petroleum coke, with mostly small orders in demand.

The local refining petroleum coke market has risen, while the calcined coke market has slightly increased. The release of new and resumed production capacity at Yunnan Aluminum Plant is nearing completion, and most aluminum carbon enterprises are operating at full capacity, which still provides favorable support for the petroleum coke market.

Aftermarket forecast: Overall low inventory in the refinery this week, with more execution of early orders as the main focus, and good downstream demand, driving up the price of refined petroleum coke. With the high price of petroleum coke, some downstream wait-and-see sentiment has increased, and it is expected that the recent refining of petroleum coke may be the main focus.