1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, the spot market price of PVC increased in August. On August 1st, the average domestic PVC price was 6052 yuan/ton, and on August 30th, the average price was 6184 yuan/ton, with a monthly price increase of 2.18%.

2、 Market analysis

The spot market price of PVC rose in August. The spot price of PVC fluctuated slightly in the first and middle of this month. The trading atmosphere in the spot market is poor, and the market trading is light. Traders have low enthusiasm for purchasing goods, and downstream purchases are made on demand, with caution in actual orders. The futures market prices have risen frequently in the latter half of the year, and the atmosphere in the spot market has also improved. It is difficult to find low-priced goods, and prices continue to rise. However, downstream market demand is average, resisting high prices, and actual order follow-up is slightly insufficient. At present, the confidence in the PVC spot market is still good, with prices mainly remaining stable at the end of the month. As of now, the quotation range for PVC 5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 6150-6350 yuan/ton.

In August, crude oil emerged from a trend of rising and falling, and in the first half of the year, the market continued to rise amidst supply concerns and the positive trend of the peak oil consumption season. Brent crude oil topped $87 per barrel, while WTI crude oil approached $83, reaching a nearly 9-month high. Afterwards, with the deterioration of macro data, the market turned sharply downwards, and near the end of the month, the WTI fell below $80. Under the combined effect of OPEC+production control and weak economic data in oil producing countries, the supply-demand game intensifies, and the market shifts into a narrow range of fluctuations. In the short term, the driving force for the oil market to continue to rise is limited. Under the hedging of weak demand expectations and tight supply, the high probability range is mainly characterized by narrow fluctuations.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region increased significantly in August, with the price of calcium carbide rising from 2950.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3283.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 11.30%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 11.26% year-on-year. Looking at the future market: In mid to early September, the calcium carbide market may slightly increase, with consolidation being the main focus. The prices of upstream raw materials such as blue charcoal have stabilized at a high level, and the cost of calcium carbide is well supported. The downstream PVC market has slightly increased, and downstream demand is good. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly in mid to early September, with consolidation being the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that the factory price of calcium carbide increased significantly in August, with strong cost support. Recently, PVC futures prices have been rising frequently, but the market’s acceptance of high priced goods is not good, and the trading situation is average. Downstream procurement is on demand, and actual orders are cautious. It is expected that the PVC market will continue to fluctuate within the range in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.