Gold prices rose first and then fell in September
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The price of precious metal gold rose in September. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the spot market price of gold on September 28, 2023 was 462.87 yuan/g, an increase from the spot market price of 462.84 yuan/g at the beginning of this month (September 1).
Silver prices fell by 0.89%
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average silver market price on September 28, 2023 was 5766 yuan/kg, a decrease of 2.33% compared to the average silver market price of 5903.67 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (September 1).
Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil
In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation. The trend of precious metals and crude oil began to converge in late March, but after mid April, the trend began to diverge again. Mainly due to the increased impact of risk aversion on the rise of precious metal prices. Recently, crude oil prices have rebounded, and precious metal prices have also followed suit.
Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year
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In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise. Silver prices began to decline in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices reached a high level and silver prices began to rise. After July, gold prices have become stronger.
Macro news surface
According to data released by the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday, the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index, rose 0.4% month on month in August, lower than the market’s expected 0.5%; Excluding food and energy prices, the core PCE price index in August increased by 0.1% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9%.
Future Market Forecast
At present, the price of precious metals has been fluctuating in the high range after hitting a 10-year high in the early stage. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively strong sense of risk aversion, which is currently reflected in prices. Some central banks around the world have increased their holdings of gold reserves, which has also provided some support for gold prices.
However, as market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for a long time continue to rise, the US dollar index has significantly risen, reducing the attractiveness of gold to investors. The international gold price in the US dollar has started to decline, while the domestic RMB gold price was relatively strong in the early stage, and has slightly declined today. At present, the premium level of domestic gold prices compared to international gold prices has set a record, reaching over $100 per ounce, while the average premium level in the past decade has been less than $6. Therefore, precious metal prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term.
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