According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic light rare earth market prices have been continuously falling recently. On December 11th, the rare earth index was 470 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 53.33% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 73.43% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy have all declined, while the price of metallic praseodymium remains low; As of the 12th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 552500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 4.74%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 447500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 5.29%; The price of neodymium oxide was 457500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 5.18%; The price of neodymium metal is 582500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 4.90%; The price of praseodymium metal is 600000 yuan/ton, and the weekly price trend is temporarily stable; The price of praseodymium oxide is 465000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 4.12%.

The domestic light rare earth market has been in a continuous decline, with limited transactions and few new orders recently. The purchasing willingness of enterprises is low, and the overall decline in the market is difficult to change. Recently, some companies have lowered their negative guarantee prices, putting pressure on metal spot transactions. Downstream magnetic material companies have a sluggish purchasing willingness, mainly focusing on consuming inventory. In addition, the procurement of waste recycling is not active, the overall support of the market is insufficient, and pessimism has intensified, resulting in a sustained decline in rare earth market prices. Some small and medium-sized manufacturers are struggling to survive, with prices of praseodymium neodymium metal still hanging upside down, poor transaction performance, and sluggish purchasing sentiment, leading to a decline in prices in the domestic light rare earth market.

According to statistics, the production of new energy vehicles in November 2023 was 1.074 million units, with sales of 1.026 million units, a year-on-year increase of 39.2% and 30%. From January to November 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 8.426 million and 8.34 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 34.5% and 36.7%, and a market share of 30.8%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles still provides support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth exports in November were 4205.8 tons; The cumulative total export volume of rare earths from China from January to November was 48867.7 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The corresponding increase in export volume supported the prices of some products, but poor domestic demand led to a sustained decline in the light rare earth market.

Market forecast: In the near future, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises has been sluggish, and the situation of new orders is quiet. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will slightly decrease in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.