According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the PP market has been experiencing strong fluctuations recently, with prices of various wire drawing brands generally increasing. As of May 28th, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7950 yuan/ton, up or down by 1.37% from the price level on May 1st.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, the high international crude oil prices still provide support for the PP market. The price of propylene fluctuates and consolidates. Domestic port inventories of propane have decreased, with prices slightly rising. Overall, the cost support for PP in the near future is still acceptable.

Overall, the raw material market is strong, providing strong support for the cost side of PP. In terms of industry load, there has been significant stability and small fluctuations, with an average load of around 72% in the near future. The inventory of production enterprises remains basically unchanged, with limited changes in supply pressure. There may be a partial return to production capacity in the later stage, which may cause a certain degree of supply increase. The strong macroeconomic expectations in the market have to some extent pushed up spot prices, but the load on end enterprises has generally remained stable. Downstream PP enterprises such as plastic weaving, film materials, and injection molding have a comprehensive operating rate of about 42%, 65%, and 57% at the end of the month, respectively. The demand is limited, and enterprise replenishment operations are mainly based on basic needs, resulting in a moderate trading atmosphere.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 28th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has fluctuated and increased. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7762.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.49% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 8% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials have seen significant and stable loads, with an average operating rate of around 29%. The trading volume in the non-woven fabric market is average, and orders are mainly based on contracts. The digestion speed of end products has slowed down, and the upward trend is mainly driven by macro expectations. It is expected that the future market of fiber materials may still be constrained by weak demand and weak operation.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market has remained stable with an increase this week. As of May 28th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 8075 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+0.47%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.22%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China is generally high, and the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not significantly driven. In addition, the downstream factories have low load, and most of the new orders are scattered. It is expected that the digestion speed of terminal products in the future market will be slow, and melt blown materials may weaken due to the drag of demand.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market has been generally strong and volatile in recent times. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is relatively strong, and the support from the cost side for the market is still acceptable. Although there are expectations of an increase in the supply of goods, the current supply pressure is temporarily easing. The production of terminal enterprises is stable, and stocking is essential to maintain production. The current strong macro weak reality on the market is expected to gradually enter the off-season market in the future, The PP market may stagnate and weaken.