According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic ethanol market in May first rose and then fell. From May 1st to 31st, the average price of domestic ethanol producers first increased from 6012 yuan/ton and then dropped to 5987 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.42% during the cycle and a maximum amplitude of 1.57%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.28%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic ethanol market rebounded slightly, and it was difficult to find logistics vehicles before the holiday, resulting in an increase in shipping costs. Some factories have raised their prices and shown a strong willingness to ship. In mid month, the domestic ethanol market saw a narrow rise with slight regional differences. Individual factories have seen significant price increases, with an increase in maintenance equipment and a decrease in supply, providing support for the mentality of all parties. However, considering the weak demand and weak enthusiasm for receiving new orders, downstream companies continue to be cautious. In the latter half of the month, the domestic ethanol market rebounded, with some regions pulling up in the early stage. However, the actual signing of orders was not ideal, and demand was not smooth in following orders, putting pressure on high priced transactions. With the increase of market inventory, the ethanol market has returned to a weak position.

On the cost side, with the support of enterprise price hikes and replenishment, there is still some room for price recovery in the domestic corn market. Overall, the supply and demand of the domestic corn market remain stable in the short term, with imported corn and its substitutes arriving in ports one after another. Downstream demand for corn continues to be weak, and the price of new season wheat in Linchi is opening low and closing low, playing a long short game. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; Less than 40% of construction in East China has started; About 80% of the construction in Northeast China has started; The operating rate in southern and southwestern regions is about 20%. All Jixian devices have been shut down, and after merging, they will be replaced for maintenance; The extended Yushen device has officially entered shutdown; Anhui Carbon Xin restarted on May 20th. The supply side of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the demand for Baijiu continues to be weak, with limited efforts to boost the market; The market for chemical ethyl ester procurement is smooth, with a focus on price reduction procurement; Methyl ethyl ester production is stable with little fluctuation. Short term ethanol demand is affected by bearish factors.

In the future, it is predicted that at present, the cost side and the supply side are supported by favorable factors, Baijiu and chemical procurement are not good, and the receiving price has declined month on month. Ethanol analysts from the Supply and Demand Game Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will mainly consolidate.