According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak and fluctuating recently (July 17-July 29). As of July 29, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 14011 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50% from 14082 yuan/ton on July 17, with a peak of 14223 yuan/ton during the cycle. On the one hand, raw material prices have slightly decreased, and on the other hand, downstream production has decreased, and there is resistance to high priced sources of goods. The overall market is in a weak consolidation state.

On the one hand, in recent days (7.17-7.29), there has been a certain increase in the supply of raw materials from domestic and foreign raw material production areas. The price of natural rubber raw materials has slightly decreased, and the cost has weakened in the face of the domestic natural rubber market support. As of July 26th, the price of Thai glue was 63.00 baht/kg, slightly lower than the price in mid July; As of the 29th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas was around 13400 yuan/ton, slightly lower than the price in mid July.

On the other hand, the speed of natural rubber inventory turnover has slowed down. As of July 21, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 476100 tons, a decrease of 0.38% compared to the previous period.

Downstream all steel tire production has slightly decreased, and demand has weakened due to the weak support of the natural rubber market. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, resulting in a slight drop in natural rubber prices. As of July 24th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.4%.

Market forecast: Currently, the supply of raw materials at home and abroad is gradually increasing, and the price of natural rubber raw materials is slightly falling; In addition, downstream tire companies have seen a slight decrease in production and are cautious about purchasing high priced goods; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will consolidate weakly in the short term.