According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market recently (9.1-9.9) fell first and then rose, with a slight overall increase. As of September 9th, the spot rubber market price in China’s natural rubber market was around 15232 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from 15146 yuan/ton on September 1st, with a low point of 14773 yuan/ton during the cycle. On the one hand, raw material prices have slightly increased, and on the other hand, downstream tire production has remained stable, supporting the demand for natural rubber. Natural rubber prices have slightly increased due to cost and demand support.

Recently, the weather in Thailand and Vietnam’s production areas has been poor, and some areas in Yunnan Province have been affected by seasonal leaf fall disease, which has led to a certain degree of obstruction in the supply of natural rubber raw materials at home and abroad, resulting in a slight increase in the price of natural rubber raw materials. As of September 9th, the price of Thai glue is 69.50 baht/kg, which is higher than the price of 67.20 baht/kg on August 30th; As of September 9th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area was around 14100 yuan/ton, slightly higher than the price of 14000 yuan/ton on August 30th.

Natural rubber inventory maintains a slow destocking trend. As of September 1, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 455200 tons, continuing to decline slightly.

With the support of domestic policies to promote automobile consumption, the downstream tire industry has maintained stable production, facing the urgent demand support of the natural rubber market. As of September 6th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.9%.

Market forecast: Currently, domestic and international raw material supply prices are high; Under the policy of promoting consumption, all tire enterprises are operating steadily, which provides certain support for natural rubber; Overall, in the short term, supported by costs and demand, it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience strong fluctuations.