According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 13th to September 20th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 13550 yuan/ton to 13512.5 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.28% during the period. This cycle coincides with the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, and the butadiene market first fell and then rose. The demand for pre holiday and downstream pre holiday stocking was basically released, and the procurement pace slowed down, resulting in a slight decline in pre holiday prices. After the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, affected by the rise in the synthetic rubber market, the mentality of the spot market has improved, and the holders of goods have a strong mentality of raising prices. The mainstream domestic prices have risen, and as the National Day holiday approaches, there is a demand for replenishing inventory downstream. The mentality of the spot market is generally strong, and the overall price is stable, medium, and strong near the weekend. As of September 20th, the self pickup price of butadiene in the East China region is between 13400-13500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week.

Cost wise: The international oil price market first fell and then rose. As of the 19th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.95 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.88 per barrel. The crude oil market has started to decline in this cycle, and this news is negative for international oil prices due to the easing of tensions in the Middle East. Global crude oil demand fell short of expectations, coupled with the end of the peak oil season in the United States, dragging down the crude oil market and causing a decline in crude oil market prices. The rise in crude oil market prices in the later stage of this cycle, coupled with the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, has boosted the crude oil market. Looking ahead, the current geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States has ended, and global economic data has performed poorly. However, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts have boosted the oil market, and the crude oil market is mainly volatile

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec remains stable at 13600 yuan/ton. The Northern Huajin 120000 tons/year butadiene plant is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance on July 12th and restarted in September; The 200000 ton unit of Fujian United and Zhejiang Petrochemical will be shut down for maintenance in early September and is expected to restart in the latter half of the year. The 56000 ton plant of Qilu Petrochemical was shut down on July 3rd, and the restart time is yet to be determined. Jilin Petrochemical’s 190000 ton plant shut down on August 25th and is expected to restart in October. The comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much recently, and it has remained stable with a slight increase this week. The overall supply of butadiene is relatively stable.

On the demand side: The downstream synthetic rubber market continued to rebound slightly this week, and downstream inquiries are currently cautious. The Shanghai market for butadiene rubber is consolidating at a high level. The futures price of butadiene rubber fluctuated at a high level, with downstream demand inquiries and high prices of butadiene. The merchant offers were relatively firm. As of September 20th, the mainstream reports for Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding are 16200-16500 yuan/ton; The market situation of styrene butadiene rubber in Shanghai is narrow, with small upstream and downstream inquiries being the main focus. The ex factory price of styrene butadiene rubber remains firm, and merchant offers are adjusted upwards. As of September 20th, the mainstream price of styrene butadiene 1502 in Qilu, Jihua, Yangzi, and Fushun is around 16550-16700 yuan/ton.

On Thursday (September 19th), the closing price of butadiene in foreign markets was temporarily stable: among them, the FOB price in South Korea was reported at 1540-1550 US dollars/ton, unchanged; China CFR reported $1565-1575/ton, unchanged; European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at $1105-1115/ton, unchanged; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1060-1070 euros/ton, unchanged.

Market forecast: The overall market atmosphere is strong in the near future, with strong quotes from holders and difficulty in finding low-priced goods in the market. On the demand side, downstream companies are currently maintaining on-demand procurement. As the holiday approaches, there is a demand for pre holiday replenishment in the downstream market. The strengthening of the choir rubber market has led to an improvement in market atmosphere. Overall, there are still good news in the butadiene market, and it is expected that the short-term trend will be mainly stable, moderate, and strong, with a focus on pre holiday stocking.