The construction peak season for the Golden September and Silver October has already passed halfway, but there is no positive impact on supply, demand, and cost, leading to an overall decline in the asphalt market. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price in Shandong region was 3520 yuan/ton on September 1st, and dropped to 3390 yuan/ton on September 30th, a decrease of 3.69%.

The cost side is running at a low level, and the crude oil trend in September has significantly declined. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has affected the trend of the crude oil market, and the easing of the situation at the beginning of the month has led to a significant decline in the crude oil market; Since September, there have been concerns about the future demand for crude oil market, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market; Finally, due to the rise in US crude oil inventories and negative factors, the overall crude oil market prices have significantly decreased

From a supply side perspective, the overall operating rate of the industry is poor, with operating rates at a relatively low level in the past five years. It is expected that the total asphalt production will increase in October, with an estimated output of 2.32 million tons, an increase of 300000 tons compared to the previous month.

September is the traditional peak season, and on the demand side, due to factors such as funding and weather, demand is not as good as in previous years. It is expected that a cold air will hit in the future, causing some areas to rush to work due to a decrease in temperature. However, due to insufficient infrastructure funds and increased demand for advance payments, asphalt stocking is hindered under financial pressure. If the demand for asphalt cannot further increase in October, there will be significant pressure to reduce inventory after the holiday.

From the perspective of Business Society, paying attention to the destocking situation of asphalt after the holiday, the overall asphalt market trading in October is expected to improve.