According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline in October 2024. From October 1st to 30th, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 13700 yuan/ton to 12325 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 10.04% during the period.

In the first half of the month: This cycle coincides with the National Day holiday, and the overall butadiene market is weak. The market trend before the holiday is relatively weak, and downstream purchasing intentions are more cautious, resulting in an overall decline in prices. After the holiday, the opening of the market was affected by the strengthening of the downstream synthetic rubber market, and spot market prices slightly increased. However, due to insufficient follow-up of downstream demand, the market’s wait-and-see atmosphere gradually emerged, and the fundamentals weakened, causing the market to fall back. At the same time, due to the recent loose market supply, it has dragged down the mentality of holders and led to a wide decline in market prices.

Mid month: The domestic butadiene market continued to decline. Although there was some demand for replenishment after the holiday, which boosted the market, the downstream synthetic rubber market weakened, dragging down market purchasing sentiment and lacking demand support. The spot market sentiment was weak, and prices generally declined. On the supply side, some shipments from the East China region arrived at the port this week, and there are expectations of loose supply in the market. Downstream pressure on prices is gradually rising, and the overall market atmosphere is weak.

Late of the month: The domestic butadiene market continues to decline, and the downstream synthetic rubber futures market has a weak trend, which has a weak impact on the spot market mentality. The downstream has a strong wait-and-see attitude and lacks demand support. The butadiene market has a weak trend this week.

Cost aspect: The international oil price market rose first and then fell during this cycle, with international crude oil futures closing down as of October 29th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States is $67.21 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $70.73 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated at high levels, which is partly due to the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East. This news is positive for international oil prices. On the other hand, the supply of crude oil remains tight. The OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. The supply shortage still exists, and the international crude oil price trend is rising. In addition, the local economy in Asia has improved, and the market’s panic on demand has eased, boosting the international oil market. The crude oil market is mainly volatile.

Supply side: The comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much recently, and the overall supply is relatively stable.

On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for butadiene rubber continued to decline in October. As the price of raw material butadiene continued to fall, the cost support for butadiene rubber weakened; Shunding rubber production is still at a low level; The downstream tires shall be adjusted when starting. Shunding rubber suppliers have lowered their supply prices, and merchants have adjusted their offers. As of October 30th, the mainstream prices for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 15500~15750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500-600 yuan/ton compared to the same period last month.

External market: The butadiene market experienced a wide decline in October, with FOB prices in South Korea ranging from $1445 to $1455 per ton as of October 29th, a decrease of $100 per ton during the period; China CFR reported 1460-1470 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 125 US dollars/ton during the cycle; European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at $1135-1145/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1035-1045 euros/ton, a decrease of 70 euros/ton during the cycle.

Market forecast: Due to the increase in supply in the near future, the overall atmosphere of the spot market is weak, and port cargo sources have continued to accumulate, resulting in loose market supply. In terms of demand, the overall downstream synthetic rubber market has been weak in recent times, providing essential support for the butadiene market. However, overall, the market atmosphere is still relatively weak due to the impact of loose supply, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.