Ethylene glycol prices fall in November
| Gamma Polyglutamic Acid |
The price of ethylene glycol fell in November. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of November 19th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4583.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01% from the average price of 4630 yuan/ton on November 1st.
On November 19, 2024, the spot operating price of ethylene glycol at the port was between 4570-4590 yuan/ton. The basis of the ethylene glycol spot contract at the port remained stable during the day, with a slight increase. In the morning session, the basis price of the spot contract for this week was+39 to+42, in the afternoon session it was+40 to+42, and in the lower session of November, the basis price was+42 to+44.
On November 19th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4230-4350 yuan/ton, including taxes.
On November 18, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $535/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $548/ton.
The weak performance of ethylene glycol prices in November is mainly due to the following two factors. Firstly, there is an expectation of a rebound in port inventory; Secondly, there is an expectation of an increase in the domestic ethylene glycol production rate.
The expectation of a rebound in port inventory remains high
The explicit inventory data of ethylene glycol at the port is still relatively low, but there is an expectation of an increase in recent arrivals. Last week, the total amount of goods received at the main port was about 119000 tons, with concentrated arrivals and a slight increase in inventory. Next week, the total planned arrival at the main port is 157000 tons, with 20000 tons at other ports; As of November 18, 2024, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in major ports in East China was 575300 tons, up from 525400 tons on October 4, with a cumulative inventory of 49900 tons. This week, it is expected that there will be a large amount of ethylene glycol arriving at the port, and there is still an expectation of a rebound in port inventory.
Domestic supply rebounds
On the supply side, due to the impact of price recovery factors in the early stage, the total operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol began to recover, and the operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol slightly increased, resulting in a slight increase in production.
Demand side: The downstream polyester load is relatively high, and the filament maintains a high operating load, with little room for further improvement. Terminal autumn and winter orders have still fallen short of expectations recently, with no improvement seen in the short term.
Future expectations
The previous surge in ethylene glycol prices was mainly due to favorable domestic macroeconomic conditions, coupled with low port supply; In addition, the resonance of rising prices in the polyester sector has caused the price of ethylene glycol to climb to a high level for the year.
Recently, international crude oil prices have weakened and cost support has been weak. Coupled with the concentration of ports, inventory data has shown a short-term upward trend, and ethylene glycol prices have begun to fall.
The future price variables of ethylene glycol mainly depend on overseas supply and cost support, and it is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will fluctuate weakly in the short term.
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