Analysis: This week (11.25-29), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong continued to be sluggish, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 2.22%. The main reason for the loose supply performance is that the early maintenance equipment has gradually resumed, the manufacturer’s operating rate has increased, and coupled with the increase in the manufacturer’s urea to ammonia conversion volume, the supply has significantly increased. The increase in ammonia volume has put pressure on the price of liquid ammonia. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 50-150 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2650-2800 yuan/ton.

Prediction: As winter approaches and fertilizer procurement is off-season, downstream operating rates will significantly decrease, industrial demand will follow suit, and supply will be sufficient. In the later stage, supply pressure may be partially alleviated. On the one hand, operating rates will decline with lower prices. In addition, rainy and snowy weather in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and other areas may put pressure on transportation, and local supply may be scarce. Taking all factors into consideration, liquid ammonia may stop falling next week, but local localization may bring about price fluctuations.