According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic MTBE market is fluctuating and consolidating. From December 1st to 30th, the MTBE price first rose from 5445 yuan/ton and then fell to 5492 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.87% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 15.66%.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic MTBE market remained stable and consolidated. After entering December, there were some pending delivery orders for gasoline, which increased the enthusiasm for purchasing gasoline raw materials. At the same time, there were also many new gasoline vehicle and ship orders, which provided positive support for the relevant gasoline raw material market and maintained a strong consolidation.

In mid month, the domestic MTBE market experienced significant fluctuations, with price increases being particularly evident. The core driving factors for the broad upward trend in prices were the large number of gasoline shipments and the strong support of new vehicle and shipping orders. Industry players showed high enthusiasm for purchasing relevant gasoline raw materials, and MTBE manufacturers actively pushed up prices. However, near the end of the week, manufacturers’ shipments weakened.

At the end of the month, the domestic MTBE market trend gradually weakened. As the phased replenishment of inventory by terminal operators came to an end, the enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline raw materials slowed down. At the same time, due to the rise of various gasoline components to a phase high point, the mixed profit of operators was compressed, resulting in an increasing resistance to high prices. The MTBE market remained stable but slightly weak.

On the cost side, the international crude oil market in December was mainly volatile, with the main positive factors being: the market believes that the Asian economy is expected to improve, coupled with the risk of new sanctions faced by some oil producing countries, and the decline in US commercial crude oil inventories. As of December 27th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $74.17 per barrel, an increase of $0.91 or 1.20%.

From the perspective of demand and downstream gasoline terminal demand, the finished oil market has stopped rising and fallen, and refineries have lowered prices to promote sales. However, the poor performance of terminal demand has suppressed the digestion of social units’ inventory, and the pace of mid to downstream merchants entering the market for procurement has slowed down. Market transactions are mainly small orders. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, the operating rate of the equipment has increased. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on December 27th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $4/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $706.99-708.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market has increased by $5/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB ARA closing at $850.99-851.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $4.92/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $815.81-816.16/ton (230.35-230.45 cents/gallon).

The future forecast shows weak supply and demand. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market will experience a narrow consolidation in the short term.