1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market fluctuated within a range this week (1.20-24), with prices first rising and then falling. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4946 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.41% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

At the beginning of this week, PVC continued its upward trend from last week, slightly rising, and some manufacturers continued to adjust their prices. The range is between 50-100 yuan/ton. However, after the middle of the week, due to limited positive news on fundamentals, crude oil prices fluctuated and fell, resulting in a weak performance in the futures market. PVC prices have fluctuated within the range, with a slight downward shift in the overall range. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the spot PVC market is linked downward, coupled with loose supply and demand performance, and most manufacturers are operating stably. The supply pressure has not changed much, and it is difficult for dealers to improve their offers. Before the holiday, downstream demand gradually shrank, and downstream procurement was mainly based on spot prices. The enthusiasm for inquiry procurement was not high, and the market atmosphere was sluggish. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electric aggregate in China is mostly around 4900-5050 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream calcium carbide, since January, the market price of calcium carbide has remained stable, which has brought certain benefits to downstream PVC by stopping the decline and stabilizing. In addition, the residual temperature of downstream procurement before the holiday supported market demand, but the current peak of procurement is gradually coming to an end, and downstream consumers generally have a resistance to high priced goods, which to some extent suppresses the continued rise of PVC prices.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that as the holiday approaches, the trading volume in the PVC spot market is gradually weakening, and downstream companies are gradually suspending work and holidays. Demand is weakening, and market transactions are expected to decline. Most of the current rise is driven by the futures market and policies. Although traders are helping to speculate on the rise, the weak fundamentals of the spot market have led to a sustained upward trend.