According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 14th to 21st (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market first fell from 2599 yuan/ton and then rose to 2598 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 0.03% during the period, a month on month decline of 2.35%, and a year-on-year decline of 0.67%. The domestic methanol market is weak and volatile. The utilization rate of domestic methanol production capacity is still at a high level, and the traditional downstream is gradually recovering. Although downstream external procurement has boosted the mainland market at the beginning of the week, the downstream maintains rational procurement as the main focus, and the overall mainland market is weak and volatile.

As of the close on February 21st, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2505, opened at 2550 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2558 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2538 yuan/ton. It closed at 2547 yuan/ton in the closing session, an increase of 8 yuan or 0.32% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 441101 lots, the position is 784503 lots, and the daily increase is -2025.

In terms of cost, the thermal coal market has been operating weakly recently. At present, most coal mines in the production area are maintaining normal production, mainly implementing long-term cooperative shipping, and the overall coal supply has basically returned to normal levels. The enthusiasm for coal procurement in the downstream market is currently poor, with only a small amount of essential transportation being maintained, and traders and coal plants temporarily suspending procurement. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

Demand side, downstream acetic acid: increasing demand for acetic acid; Downstream formaldehyde: Increased demand for formaldehyde; Downstream dimethyl ether: Increased demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream chloride: There is currently no equipment fluctuation for chloride, and there is little change in operation. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, the overall loss of equipment is greater than the recovery amount, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of February 20th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 366.50-367.50 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 111.00 to 112.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 335.50-336.50 euros/ton.

In the future forecast, there will be a sustained demand for shipments from mainland factories, while foreign ships will be concentrated at ports. In addition, with sufficient domestic trade replenishment, it will be difficult to clear inventory. Traditional downstream and MTO demand are expected to resume work, and supply and demand are expected to improve. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly focus on strong consolidation.