According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 24th to 28th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2720 yuan/ton to 2654 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 2.42% during the period, a month on month increase of 0.95%, and a year-on-year increase of 3.74%. The domestic methanol market is weakly consolidating. Some regions have abundant supply of goods and actively reduce inventory. The overall market trading atmosphere has weakened, with a decrease in the number of new orders signed by most companies, resulting in a general decline in pending orders.

As of the close on March 28th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2505 for methanol futures opened at 2563 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2573 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2525 yuan/ton. It closed at 2541 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 24 yuan or 0.94% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 782186 lots, the position is 691192 lots, and the daily increase position is -8908 lots.
In terms of cost, the supply of thermal coal in the market has been continuously loose recently, the recovery of domestic coal mining capacity has accelerated, the role of imported coal in supplementing has been strengthened, and the purchase prices of large coal enterprises and power plants have been continuously lowered. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.
Demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: increasing demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream acetic acid: Increased demand for acetic acid; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream chloride: Increased demand for chloride; Downstream formaldehyde: There are no plans to stop driving formaldehyde in the near future, and the demand fluctuation is not significant. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the supply side, the overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of March 27th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 367.50-368.50 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 94.00-95.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 318.50-319.50 euros/ton, down 10 euros/ton.
The future forecast is that the supply will remain abundant, and inventory will continue to be widely depleted. The traditional downstream demand continues to rebound, especially in the acetic acid industry, which has shown significant performance. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly focus on strong consolidation.